Summers: The chances of a recession ‘within the next two years’ are at least 50/50

Larry Summers said he couldn’t see how anyone can look at a historical experience or what the markets are predicting and not think it’s 50-50.

“Better than 50-50, a recession will begin within the next two years,” Summers said during an interview that aired on Friday’s edition of Bloomberg’s “Wall Street Week.”

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers, an economist, Harvard professor, director of the National Economic Council under President Barack Obama, and Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton Stated in this week’s interview on Wall Street Week with David Westin.

Summers stated that, while he monitors the yield curve, he “pays a bit less attention to it than those in the marketplace.”

It’s critical to recognize that this isn’t a causative relationship; if one exists, it’s a canary in the coal mine situation.

So, if you could adjust the ten-year interest rate in any way, it wouldn’t change the likelihood of a recession.

Rather, it’s that when people predict that the Fed would cut rates, they’re simultaneously predicting that it will do so because the economy is in recession. So it’s a correlation rather than causality.

“I think what’s going on with the yield curve adds to a sense of economic worry,” he continued, “because in situations like this, we haven’t had gentle landings in the past, and we’ve had recessions.”

Is a recession in the next two to three years a foregone conclusion? No. Is a recession more probable than not to occur in the next two years? I don’t see how anyone can look at either historical data or market forecasts and not believe it’s 50-50.

“If not better than 50-50, that a recession will occur within the next two years,” Summer concluded.

3 Responses

  1. summers was part of clinton’s nafta debacle ,and ultimately moved on to be Harvard’s president, which I’d bet has been a contributing factor in turning Harvard into a communist hell hole ,and anti-constitutional fascist pit of incoherent socialist bozos, with traitorous intent

  2. All thanks to the fraudulent election of Biden. He has spoiled everything Trump had accomplished just out of spite for Trump with no concern about all of us Americans.

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